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Warsaw office market ends 2025 on a high note: robust tenant activity and limited new supply

The Warsaw office real estate market closed 2025 in solid shape, marked by strong tenant demand and a notable drop in vacancy. According to BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland’s “Review – Warsaw Office Market, Q4 2025,” the market was shaped by a surge in lease renewals, brisk transaction activity in the year’s final quarter, and new supply focused in central areas.

Tenant Activity: Record Transaction Volumes and Major Deals

Tenant activity soared in 2025, with total volume reaching nearly 795,000 sq. m - a 7% increase year-over-year. The final quarter was especially dynamic, with almost 310,000 sq. m leased, up a striking 69% from Q3.

“The transaction structure in 2025 was dominated by lease renewals. For many companies, this was a decision made almost out of necessity, as the market currently offers very few viable relocation options. On top of that, fit-out costs often create a significant barrier to changing headquarters. Tenant activity was strongest in the City Centre zone, which accounted for 32% of the total leasing volume. The second most active area was Służewiec, with a 23% share,” notes Wiktoria Weilandt, Director, Office agency Department, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland

Q4 saw several landmark transactions: AstraZeneca expanded its office to nearly 22,500 sq. m and renewed its lease at Postępu 14, while a confidential tenant secured 16,000 sq. m in Eurocentrum Office Complex Delta in the Jerozolimskie Corridor. The City Transport Authority and Ringier Axel Springer Polska each renewed leases for 12,000 sq. m at Fabryka PZO I and Signum Work Station, respectively.

Lease extensions made up 65% of gross transaction volume in Q4, with new leases accounting for 31%. Across the year, new transactions represented 40% of leased space, while renewals comprised roughly 51%. Pre-leasing activity amounted to 7.4% over the past four quarters.

Supply Dynamics: Limited New Deliveries and Central Focus

At the close of 2025, Warsaw’s office market offered 6.23 million sq. m of modern office space, with less than 88,000 sq. m delivered between January and December. New supply was mainly concentrated in two projects—The Bridge (47,000 sq. m) and Office House (27,800 sq. m). Analysts note that 2025’s new supply was 15% lower than the previous year.

Existing office stock in Warsaw was smaller than the combined supply across Poland’s eight largest regional cities. The capital currently holds 48% of the country’s office stock, with 64% of

buildings over 10 years old. No new office buildings were completed in Q4 due to project timelines shifting into early 2026.

Development Pipeline: Future Projects and Supply Outlook

Looking ahead, nearly 200,000 sq. m of office space is planned for completion over the next two years—a 27% drop year-on-year. More than 61% of new supply will be delivered in central zones, with another 33% in the Central Business District.

Major developments underway include AFI Tower (50,000 sq. m) and Upper One (35,500 sq. m). The redevelopment of V-Tower (31,000 sq. m) is scheduled for completion at the end of Q1 2026.

Vacancy Rates: Declining Trend and Central Advantage

By December 2025, Warsaw’s vacancy rate fell to 9.1%, down 1.5 percentage points year-over-year. This improvement was driven by the withdrawal of buildings changing function, minimal new supply, and heightened tenant activity in the second half of the year. Vacancies in central locations dropped to 6.1%, a sharp 2.6-point decline from last year—while non-central areas saw vacancies at 11.6%. Notably, 18% of vacant space is concentrated in Służewiec.

Rental Rates: Upward Momentum and Market Drivers

Prime asking rents for top-tier office space in Warsaw continued to rise, a trend expected to continue in 2026 amid scant new supply.

“The highest growth dynamics were recorded in locations directly adjacent to the city centre. Limited supply of new developments combined with stable demand continues to fuel upward pressure. Market forecasts indicate that in 2026, prime headline rents may reach EUR 32 per sq m per month, and in the most prestigious locations — even EUR 34–35 per sq m per month.” emphasizes Małgorzata Fibakiewicz, Senior Director, Head of Office Agency Department, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.