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POLAND’S INVESTMENT MARKET POISED FOR A STRONG END TO THE YEAR

Commercial real estate investment volumes in Poland totalled EUR 2.6 billion in the year to date 2025. Although many investors remain on the sidelines, the market is showing clear signs of stabilisation, heralding a rebound later in the year. According to BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland’s report Review: Investment Market in Poland, Q3 2025, total transaction volume is expected to surpass EUR 4 billion by the end of 2025.

Market stability

Despite ongoing macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds, Poland’s commercial real estate market continues to show resilience, attracting investors with a balanced approach. Transactions completed in the third quarter of 2025 accounted for 25% of the combined investment volume in the year to date.

Offices lead the way

Office investment transactions reached EUR 899 million in the year to date, representing the largest share of total volumes at 35%. The most notable deal during the period was the acquisition of a stake in the owner of Mennica Legacy Tower in Warsaw for EUR 180 million.

Logistics and retail in good health

Retail and logistics assets remain firmly on investors’ radars, supported by sustained private consumption and the rapid growth of online sales. The industrial and logistics sector continued to perform strongly through to the end of September, recording EUR 873 million worth of transactions – an 18% year-on-year increase. The retail sector also performed steadily, with EUR 453 million transacted.

Buyer interest is especially focused on retail parks, which continue to demonstrate strong resilience to market fluctuations while benefiting from lower operating costs and deep roots in local communities.

Domestic capital increasingly active

Polish investors are steadily moving into the spotlight, accounting for as much as 36% of the transaction volume in the third quarter of 2025 and 22% of the year-to-date total. Notably, they are increasingly targeting value-add and opportunistic assets.

By source of capital, European investors dominated the market, with transactions amounting to EUR 1.69 billion – 66% of total investment volume – followed by US buyers with a 15% share (EUR 385 million) and investors from the Middle East, who contributed 11% (EUR 276 million).

Smaller and medium lot sizes in the lead

Year-to-date investment volumes show significant variation by lot size. The strongest growth was recorded in the EUR 40–100 million range, with transactions totalling EUR 1.137 billion, up 57% year-on-year. Such transactions continue to dominate in the office and industrial & logistics sectors.

Investment volume in the EUR 20–40 million lot size range remained relatively stable, posting a modest increase of 1.3% to EUR 577 million. The retail sector was the top performer year to date.

The sharpest year-on-year decline, of 55%, was recorded for large-scale deals exceeding EUR 100 million, reflecting investor preference for more typical market assets. Year-to-date investment activity in this segment amounted to EUR 434 million.

Yields remain flat

During the third quarter of 2025, prime yields in Poland remained unchanged at 5.25% for logistics facilities serving e-commerce, 6.25% for offices and warehouses, 6.50% for shopping centres, and 7.00% for retail parks. The absence of yield compression confirms ongoing investor caution.

“A vast majority of market transactions are value-add deals, where yields differ significantly from prime yields. Core investors remain few – a trend visible not only in Poland, but also across other European markets,” says Karolina Wojciechowska, Director, Capital Markets, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.

An optimistic outlook for the year-end

Prospects for the Polish economy remain positive. The European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates at 2% through to the end of 2026, further supporting the stabilisation of financing costs. According to experts, new investors are likely to enter the market, which in the longer term could intensify competition and improve sector liquidity.

“In the longer term, the Polish economy is set to benefit from broad development programmes funded under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan, Europe’s reindustrialisation and the expansion of automation and digitalisation – areas in which Poland stands out for its high-skilled IT workforce. These developments will require modern, high-quality commercial properties, which is expected to drive further investment capital inflows,” says Mateusz Skubiszewski, Head of Capital Markets, BNP Paribas Real Estate Poland.

The fourth quarter of the year is shaping up to be a period of heightened investment activity, with several large-scale transactions over EUR 100 million expected to be finalised. If completed, these deals will bring total investment volume for 2025 to over EUR 4 billion.